What about building a custom model for the FedEx St. Jude

The first thing I do is look at the statistics that correspond to the success of the course in question.

In this case, we see long par 4s, 11 water hazards and a rough count. Don't expect a high performing weekend here.

It will be a real test for most of the first shot rewards. From there, I look at those stats for each golfer's last 24 rounds,

followed by the same stats  playing the course in question and others with similar configurations....

 I put a value on each stat to yield an aggregate rating for each golfer on the course. Model FedEx St. Jude Championship  reunites us with an old friend Rory McIlroy

Rory McIlroy may be  this week's favorite, but he's #7 in my model. That's not to say he's a bad pick, but in such a stacked court, 

A runaway favorite would have to be a few strokes ahead of the court to securet. This week's pattern's top golfer  is actually Xander Schauffele (+1400).

 X-Man has won 2 of his last 4 and made it to the top 15 4 times. You won't find a stronger form than this, and his point average on correlated runs is 16.

He's the only golfer in this pattern who hasn't lost a single shot in any stats, and the last time he beat that pattern, he won! 

 There's a tight chase behind, but they're all big names. Cantlay is two shots behind, while Justin Thomas, Matt Fitzpatrick and Shane Lowry are all three behind.

Shane Lowry (+3500) is by far the longest ranked in this group, with the other three  all below +1500.

Shane Lowry (+3500) is by far the longest ranked in this group, with the other three  all below +1500.

Image Credit : Sportswire